Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
