A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
